Modelling multi-hazard risk

 Event 

Modelling multi-hazard risk

Part of the Hazard, Risk and Disaster (HRD) Research Lecture Series 2021-22.

Many multi-hazard modelling approaches focus on the frequency of events and use historical financial losses as a proxy for infrastructure impact or exposure (Bell and Glade, 2004; Tate et al., 2010; Schmidt et al., 2011; Kappes et al., 2012). Whilst such approaches may be appropriate for hazards with historic inventories detailing the distribution and scale of events, for others estimation of key factors such as historic frequency, or probability of occurrence or losses, is much more complex. There is a pressing need in developing economies particularly to characterise hazard (with potential multi-hazard interactions), exposure and vulnerability to allow for comprehensive DRM plans and pre-positioning.

In this talk Dr Annie Winson will present: the inherent complexity in understanding multiple, compound and cascading hazards, an overview of previous work focused on modelling multi-hazards and a new methodology developed as part of the METEOR project (Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines) aimed at assessing the national impact of multi-hazards on exposure, grounded in earth observation data, in the context of data paucity and high levels of inherent uncertainty.

About the speaker

Annie Winson is a Hazard and Vulnerability Specialist at the British Geological Survey. She has a background in volcanology, specifically: hazard assessment, forecasting and early warning systems. Since joining the earth observation team at the BGS, Annie has been working on developing and applying multi-hazard modelling frameworks. These incorporate landslides, flood, volcanic and seismic hazard assessments as part of the ‘Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines’ (METEOR) project. This framework integrates multi-hazard assessment with population and building exposure data derived from EO data and will include an assessment of physical vulnerability of different building types. Annie is also working with partners on projects addressing: equitable resilience, reducing disaster risk, early warnings and effective communication of hazard assessments.

Watch a recording of the seminar below